If you live, oh, say, anywhere, you've probably experienced some crappy weather lately. Here in New England, we've had tons of snow through the last month. We had an "open" Christmas (no snow), but a day or two later it was truly a winter wonderland.
Through all this, I haven't heard anyone say how well the weather forecasters have done. They've predicted almost everything very accurately. They make projections a whole week ahead, and it seems that if it changes, they catch it when there are still a few days to go. For example, they were predicting last Thursday that we'd get a snowstorm this Thursday. Yesterday--still three days ahead of the expected storm--they corrected their prediction. That's pretty good forecasting, all things considered.
I read a few years ago that they're generally right about 85% of the time. For something as changeable as the weather (especially around here), I think that's a damn good average. They don't control the weather, you know...at least I hope you do. (If you didn't know that, then here's some more news: if you send me $1,000, you'll have good luck for a year. Really.) People make their plans, their schedules; build their lives around what the weather folks say will happen; then blame them when something different occurs. I guess it's natural to want to fault someone else when your plans get messed up, but remember that 85% average the next time you're mad about shoveling your driveway or getting wet in the rain.
So there's my defense of meteor-ologists. Next time, I'll defend doctors, lawyers, insurance agents and car salespeople. Of course, when they--or most of us--screw up, it's our own fault.
Through all this, I haven't heard anyone say how well the weather forecasters have done. They've predicted almost everything very accurately. They make projections a whole week ahead, and it seems that if it changes, they catch it when there are still a few days to go. For example, they were predicting last Thursday that we'd get a snowstorm this Thursday. Yesterday--still three days ahead of the expected storm--they corrected their prediction. That's pretty good forecasting, all things considered.
I read a few years ago that they're generally right about 85% of the time. For something as changeable as the weather (especially around here), I think that's a damn good average. They don't control the weather, you know...at least I hope you do. (If you didn't know that, then here's some more news: if you send me $1,000, you'll have good luck for a year. Really.) People make their plans, their schedules; build their lives around what the weather folks say will happen; then blame them when something different occurs. I guess it's natural to want to fault someone else when your plans get messed up, but remember that 85% average the next time you're mad about shoveling your driveway or getting wet in the rain.
So there's my defense of meteor-ologists. Next time, I'll defend doctors, lawyers, insurance agents and car salespeople. Of course, when they--or most of us--screw up, it's our own fault.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment